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Our study investigates whether confidence correlates with consistency in reasoning, specifically about radioactive decay. In prior work, we developed and tested a survey designed to measure consistency of student reasoning about radioactive decay by comparing responses to three prompts that are isomorphic, meaning that, despite having different surface features, they can all be answered appropriately with the understanding that radioactive decay occurs at random. In this paper, we compare (i) student patterns on these isomorphic prompts with (ii) confidence ratings that students provided together with their responses. Our research question is "to what extent does student confidence correlate with consistency in reasoning about radioactive decay?" We have found that there is no significant correlation, suggesting that more confident students are not more likely to be consistent. One reason why this finding is relevant is that the misconceptions model attributes consistency to student ideas (as opposed to the pieces model, which describes student ideas as potentially being context dependent). Our findings suggest that it is premature to describe a student idea as a misconception, even if the student is confident in that idea.
Physical Review Physics Education Research: Volume 18, Issue 2, Pages 020108
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<a href="https://www.per-central.org/items/detail.cfm?ID=16199">Hull, M, A. Jansky, and M. Hopf. "Does confidence in a wrong answer imply a misconception?." Phys. Rev. Phys. Educ. Res. 18, no. 2, (August 2, 2022): 020108.</a>
M. Hull, A. Jansky, and M. Hopf, , Phys. Rev. Phys. Educ. Res. 18 (2), 020108 (2022), WWW Document, (https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.18.020108).
M. Hull, A. Jansky, and M. Hopf, Does confidence in a wrong answer imply a misconception?, Phys. Rev. Phys. Educ. Res. 18 (2), 020108 (2022), <https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.18.020108>.
Hull, M., Jansky, A., & Hopf, M. (2022, August 2). Does confidence in a wrong answer imply a misconception?. Phys. Rev. Phys. Educ. Res., 18(2), 020108. Retrieved April 19, 2026, from https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.18.020108
Hull, M, A. Jansky, and M. Hopf. "Does confidence in a wrong answer imply a misconception?." Phys. Rev. Phys. Educ. Res. 18, no. 2, (August 2, 2022): 020108, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.18.020108 (accessed 19 April 2026).
Hull, Michael, Alexandra Jansky, and Martin Hopf. "Does confidence in a wrong answer imply a misconception?." Phys. Rev. Phys. Educ. Res. 18.2 (2022): 020108. 19 Apr. 2026 <https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.18.020108>.
@article{
Author = "Michael Hull and Alexandra Jansky and Martin Hopf",
Title = {Does confidence in a wrong answer imply a misconception?},
Journal = {Phys. Rev. Phys. Educ. Res.},
Volume = {18},
Number = {2},
Pages = {020108},
Month = {August},
Year = {2022}
}
%A Michael Hull %A Alexandra Jansky %A Martin Hopf %T Does confidence in a wrong answer imply a misconception? %J Phys. Rev. Phys. Educ. Res. %V 18 %N 2 %D August 2, 2022 %P 020108 %U https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.18.020108 %O application/pdf %0 Journal Article %A Hull, Michael %A Jansky, Alexandra %A Hopf, Martin %D August 2, 2022 %T Does confidence in a wrong answer imply a misconception? %J Phys. Rev. Phys. Educ. Res. %V 18 %N 2 %P 020108 %8 August 2, 2022 %U https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.18.020108 Disclaimer: ComPADRE offers citation styles as a guide only. We cannot offer interpretations about citations as this is an automated procedure. Please refer to the style manuals in the Citation Source Information area for clarifications.
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